Based on the SMU’s poll of service center and manufacturing executives, we will give you a short summary about US steel market trends (steel price, availability, import) in July 2021.
Where do you think HRC prices will peak?
Roughly one-third said they believe the market is already there at $1,850 per MT. Another one-third predict HRC will eventually hit a fantastic $2,000 per MT or more. The others fall somewhere in between.
Said one respondent: “Let’s just check out the calendar. If we’re all saying it won’t peak until Q4, how does it not get to $2,000/MT?” Added another: “Does it really matter. It’s a fictitious number as there’s no spot available anyway. Import is that the only thing being ordered immediately.”
When do you think steel prices will peak?
The most common answer was August, but without much confidence at just 25%. Nearly 40% see the peak sometime within the fourth quarter, and a big number not until December or maybe later. “I’m safely saying “November,” but a big part of me wants to mention Q1 2022,” shared by one executive.
You can read more about 2021 Steel Price Forecast here
Are you seeing more availability from the domestic steel mills?
About 38% said yes, which may be a notable change from the last survey earlier in July when just 21% reported improvement:
“I have seen some availability, although I even have been cautioned these are one-offs.”
“There’s been slightly more availability, and not as many shortages against P.O. numbers.”
“Not tons of availability, but certainly quite May or June.”
“HDG and CRC are still not seeing any additional availability.”
“Nada. We are either still getting ‘No Quoted’ or placed on ‘Strict Allocation.’ Wild.”
“Mills are being very coy about controlling and making available tons to their larger customers without publicly coming onto the market.”
Have you increased your purchases of foreign steel since the beginning of the year?
The availability of spot tons from the domestic mills remains extremely tight, forcing buyers to seem elsewhere. About 45% of the service centers responding to the present month’s poll said they need increased their foreign purchases this year. Calculated as a weighted average, foreign sourcing is up by approximately 28% this year.
Virtually none of the respondents is buying fewer imports. “Due to domestic shortages, we were forced to shift tons to foreign sourcing in certain cases,” said one respondent. “We had not previously purchased foreign steel,” shared by another. “We would have bought more if it had been available; so uninterested in the domestic mills’ games and short memory,” said a third.
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